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Scientists warn on climate change: planet at risk of heading towards “Hothouse Earth”

 Image: rudy_ath/ Wikimedia Commons

Scientists are warning that the planet is on the threshold of entering “Hothouse Earth” conditions with soaring temperatures and sea levels between 10 to 60 metres higher than today becoming the new reality.

An international team of scientists has published a study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) showing that even if the carbon emission reductions called for in the Paris Agreement are met, there is a risk of Earth entering what the scientists call “Hothouse Earth” conditions.

A “Hothouse Earth” climate will in the long term stabilize at a global average of 4-5°C higher than pre-industrial temperatures with sea level between 10 to 60 metres higher than today, the paper says – and keeping global warming to within 1.5-2°C may be more difficult than previously assessed. Currently, global average temperatures are just over 1°C above pre-industrial and rising at 0.17°C per decade.

The authors conclude the need is now urgent to greatly accelerate the transition towards an emission-free world economy and are warning that if the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies.

Maximizing the chances of avoiding a “Hothouse Earth” requires not only reduction of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions but also enhancement and/or creation of new biological carbon stores.

Collective human action is now required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state – action which will entail stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate and societies.

This could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements and transformed social values.

Lead author Will Steffen from the Australian National University and Stockholm Resilience Centre commented:

“Human emissions of greenhouse gas are not the sole determinant of temperature on Earth. Our study suggests that human-induced global warming of 2°C may trigger other Earth system processes, often called “feedbacks”, that can drive further warming – even if we stop emitting greenhouse gases.”

“Avoiding this scenario requires a redirection of human actions from exploitation to stewardship of the Earth system.”

If “Hothouse Earth” becomes reality some places on Earth will be uninhabitable

The authors of the study consider ten natural feedback processes, some of which are “tipping elements” that lead to abrupt change if a critical threshold is crossed. These feedbacks could turn from being a “friend” that stores carbon to a “foe” that emits it uncontrollably in a warmer world.

The feedbacks are:

  • permafrost thaw
  • loss of methane hydrates from the ocean floor
  • weakening land and ocean carbon sinks
  • increasing bacterial respiration in the oceans
  • Amazon rainforest dieback
  • boreal forest dieback
  • reduction of northern hemisphere snow cover
  • loss of Arctic summer sea ice
  • and reduction of Antarctic sea ice and polar ice sheets

“These tipping elements can potentially act like a row of dominoes. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another. It may be very difficult or impossible to stop the whole row of dominoes from tumbling over. Places on Earth will become uninhabitable if “Hothouse Earth” becomes the reality,” warns co-author Johan Rockström, former executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre and incoming co-director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

“Cascade of events may tip the entire Earth system into a new mode of operation”

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, added:

“We show how industrial-age greenhouse gas emissions force our climate, and ultimately the Earth system, out of balance. In particular, we address tipping elements in the planetary machinery that might, once a certain stress level has been passed, one by one change fundamentally, rapidly, and perhaps irreversibly. This cascade of events may tip the entire Earth system into a new mode of operation.”

“What we do not know yet is whether the climate system can be safely ‘parked’ near 2°C above pre-industrial levels, as the Paris Agreement envisages. Or if it will, once pushed so far, slip down the slope towards a hothouse planet. Research must assess this risk as soon as possible.”

Cutting greenhouse gases is not enough

Maximizing the chances of avoiding a “Hothouse Earth” requires not only reduction of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions but also the enhancement and/or creation of new biological carbon stores, for example, through improved forest, agricultural and soil management; biodiversity conservation; and technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it underground, the paper says.

Critically, the study emphasizes that these measures must be underpinned by fundamental societal changes that are required to maintain a “Stabilized Earth” where temperatures are ~2°C warmer that the pre-industrial.

“Climate and other global changes show us that we humans are impacting the Earth system at the global level. This means that we as a global community can also manage our relationship with the system to influence future planetary conditions. This study identifies some of the levers that can be used to do so,” concludes co-author, Katherine Richardson from Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate at the University of Copenhagen.

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